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[Westley Annis]

Obama and the Perfect Political Storm 
It's hard to sell change voters don't think they need
By KARL ROVE 
August was the worst month of Barack Obama's presidency. And he seems to
know it-he is now planning to deliver a speech to a joint session of
Congress 232 days into his administration in a desperate attempt to save his
biggest domestic priority, overhauling health care.

He has already had the budget-busting $787 billion stimulus package, a
budget that doubles the national debt in five years, an earmark-laden
appropriations bill that boosted domestic spending nearly 8%, and a
cap-and-trade energy tax that limped through the House with dozens of
Democratic defections (and which has stalled in the Senate). These
achievements are unpopular, so they are boomeranging on him.

Mr. Obama's problems are legion. To start with, the president is focusing on
health care when the economy and jobs are nearly everyone's top issue.
Voters increasingly believe Mr. Obama took his eye off the ball. 

In addition, Mr. Obama is trying to overhaul health care without being able
to tap into widespread public unhappiness. Nearly nine out of 10 Americans
say they have coverage-and large majorities of them are happy with it. Of
the 46 million uninsured, 9.7 million are not U.S. citizens; 17.6 million
have annual incomes of more than $50,000; and 14 million already qualify for
Medicaid or other programs. That leaves less than five million people truly
uncovered out of a population of 307 million. Americans don't believe this
problem-serious but correctable-justifies the radical shift Mr. Obama
offers. 

Moreover, he's tried to sell it with promises Americans aren't buying. He
says ObamaCare will save money, but American believe it comes with a huge
price tag because the Congressional Budget Office has said it will. 

Workers are also rightly concerned they won't be able to keep their current
coverage. Many businesses will drop their health plans and instead pay a
fine equal to 8% of their payroll costs, which is less than what they pay
for employee coverage. 

Families believe they will be pushed into a government plan as the "public
option" drives private insurers out of the market. 

Health-care providers fear they'll be forced to follow one-size-fits-all
guidelines drafted by bureaucrats, instead of making judgments for specific
patients.

And seniors are afraid of Mr. Obama's plan to cut $500 billion from Medicare
over the next decade, including $177 billion for Medicare Advantage. It's
simply not possible to cut that much from Medicare without also cutting
services seniors need.

Each of these concerns is energizing opposition among many previously
uninvolved voters and political independents. Members of Congress,
especially those in closely contested districts, saw this firsthand when
they returned home in August.

The administration's problems have been compounded by tactical mistakes.
Allowing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to push for a Democrat-only bill
shatters any claim Mr. Obama can make to bipartisanship, a core theme of his
candidacy. Leaving the legislation's drafting to Congress has tied the
president's fortunes to Mrs. Pelosi, who has a 25% approval rating
nationwide, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, whose approval rating is
37% in Nevada. 

About Karl RoveKarl Rove served as Senior Advisor to President George W.
Bush from 2000-2007 and Deputy Chief of Staff from 2004-2007. At the White
House he oversaw the Offices of Strategic Initiatives, Political Affairs,
Public Liaison, and Intergovernmental Affairs and was Deputy Chief of Staff
for Policy, coordinating the White House policy making process.
Before Karl became known as "The Architect" of President Bush's 2000 and
2004 campaigns, he was president of Karl Rove + Company, an Austin-based
public affairs firm that worked for Republican candidates, nonpartisan
causes, and nonprofit groups. His clients included over 75 Republican U.S.
Senate, Congressional and gubernatorial candidates in 24 states, as well as
the Moderate Party of Sweden.

Sen. Jim DeMint (R., S.C.) was inartful but basically correct when he said
if Mr. Obama loses on health care, "it will be his Waterloo." It would
destroy confidence in the ability of Democrats to govern. Mr. Obama knows
this, which is why he will stop at nothing to get a bill, any bill, on which
the label "health-care reform" can be stuck. 

Given the Democratic congressional margins, Mr. Obama has the votes to do
it, but at huge costs to him and his party. Legislation that looks anything
like the bill moving through the House will contain deeply unpopular
provisions-including massive deficit spending, tax hikes and Medicare
cuts-and create enormous ill will on Capitol Hill. This will be especially
true if Democrats rely on parliamentary tricks to pass a bill in the Senate
with 51 votes. The public's reaction in August showed that the president is
creating the conditions for a revolt against his party in the 2010
elections.

On the other hand, if Mr. Obama jettisons the public option, he may spark a
revolt within his party. The Democratic base is already grumbling and could
block a bill if it doesn't include a public option.

Presidents always encounter rough patches. What is unusual is how soon Mr.
Obama has hit his. He has used up almost all his goodwill in less than nine
months, with the hardest work still ahead. At the year's start, Democrats
were cocky. At summer's end, concern is giving way to despair. A perfect
political storm is amassing, and heading straight for Democrats. 

Mr. Rove is the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President
George W. Bush. 

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