[StBernard] Census estimate shows strong population growth in Orleans, St. Bernard parishes

[Westley Annis]

Census estimate shows strong population growth in Orleans, St. Bernard
parishes
By Michelle Krupa, The Times-Picayune 
March 23, 2010, 9:39PM
Census estimates released Tuesday show that the region's population has
continued to grow since the exodus that followed Hurricane Katrina, with New
Orleans and St. Bernard Parish posting the biggest gains of the seven
metro-area parishes in the year ending July 1, 2009.

Jefferson Parish remained Louisiana's most populous parish, with an
estimated 443,300 residents in mid-2009. Despite the strong ranking,
Jefferson lost about 1,300 residents between July 2008 and July 2009, a
reduction of 0.3 percent, according to the data released by the U.S. Census
Bureau. Parish leaders say they plan to appeal the tally.

Meanwhile, St. Bernard Parish turned in the strongest rate of growth
statewide from mid-2008 to mid-2009, figures show. Its mid-2009 estimate of
40,655 residents marks a boost of nearly 3,000 people since mid-2008, an 8
percent increase.

New Orleans' population stood at nearly 355,000 residents in July 2009, an
uptick of about 18,200 from the previous year, though still nearly 100,000
people less than shortly before Katrina, the data show. That figure gave New
Orleans a third-place ranking in the state following East Baton Rouge
Parish, where an estimated 434,600 people lived in mid-2009.

St. Tammany Parish's population also expanded during the one-year period,
with its mid-2009 estimate of 231,500 residents representing 0.9 percent
growth over the previous year. 

Along with Jefferson, population losers included St. John the Baptist
Parish, with a reduction of about 350 residents for an estimate of about
47,000 people in July 2009; Plaquemines Parish, which lost about 200 people
for a mid-2009 estimate of 20,900 residents; and St. Charles Parish, where
the tally drop by eight people to 51,611 last July.

That said, St. Charles, St. John and St. Tammany are the only three parishes
in the metro area that have more residents than they did before the August
2005 storm. 

Overall, the metro area ranked 69th largest among 355 metropolitan areas
across the country. While its population estimate inched up nearly 2 percent
in the year ending in July, the increase marked the slowest annual pace of
growth since Katrina. 


The estimates released Tuesday have no bearing on the census questionnaires
delivered this month to households across the New Orleans area and the
country. Responses to those forms will be used for the person-by-person head
count, with results by parish expected in early 2011. 

In years between decennial population counts, the Census Bureau estimates
the number of residents in a jurisdiction by using birth and death records,
information from tax returns and, in some cases, housing statistics, such as
construction and demolition permits. 

Since Katrina, parish officials in the New Orleans area have successfully
challenged the annual estimates released each March by providing data on
electrical accounts, building permits, mail service, utility connections and
trash-collection sites. 

The additional data has prompted Census Bureau officials to boost the
numbers, a factor that can lead to increases in some federal aid categories.


With its focus shifted to conducting the 2010 head count, the Census Bureau
has suspended the appeals process for the 2009 numbers. Nevertheless,
Jefferson Parish administrators said they will attempt to push through an
appeal.

Jefferson stands to lose $272,000 in community and redevelopment grants for
every 1,000 residents who are not counted, said Bert Smith, the parish's
deputy chief operating officer. Smith said he has sent letters to Sens. Mary
Landrieu and David Vitter asking them to support efforts to direct census
officials to allow appeals of 2009 estimates.

The parish challenged last year's population estimate, prompting the Census
Bureau to turn a loss of 4,000 residents into a gain of 4,000. Smith said
the mid-2009 figure likely is low because it is based on the initial, lower
2008 estimate.

"It's not surprising that our numbers went down because they used a baseline
figure that we have already demonstrated was low by more than 8,000
residents," he said. "We will probably try to appeal that." 

Maggie Merrill, who handles census issues in New Orleans, said city
officials concur with the 2009 estimate, saying it is in step with local
demographers' assertions that 350,000 to 360,000 residents lived in the city
in July 2009. 

"This estimate seems to be right on target for what demographers had been
projecting," she said, adding that the city has no plans to challenge the
finding.

The tally confirms that "people still are working hard to come back to New
Orleans," Merrill said. "Overall, we have seen a significant increase in the
population a lot faster than anybody was initially projecting right after
Hurricane Katrina, ... but it may not be as drastic a jump as it was in the
years right after the storm."

St. Bernard Parish President Craig Taffaro said the estimate for his parish
also appears accurate, based on utility usage and other data. 

"These numbers support our belief that St. Bernard continues its steady
recovery and growth," Taffaro said. 

Merrill emphasized that the ongoing census count -- which asks residents
across the country to return forms listing the number of people in their
household, along with limited personal information -- will be crucial to
determining the population of New Orleans and the surrounding area. The
final numbers will determine congressional representation for the next
decade, as well as the distribution of about $400 billion annually in
federal money. 

"All of this stuff is just an estimate until now. This is the real thing,"
Merrill said, referring to the questionnaires. "Everything rests on this for
the next 10 years. It is very important for every person to fill them out.
Go talk to your neighbors. Make sure everyone is filling out a form."

Paul Rioux and Bob Warren contributed to this report. 
Michelle Krupa can be reached at mkrupa at timespicayune.com or 504.826.3312.