[LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 153, Issue 3

Poul-Henning Kamp phk at phk.freebsd.dk
Wed Jul 15 13:11:05 EDT 2020


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> I haven't re-run the statistics.  I'd still bet that the 
> average LOD stays constant at its latest several-year average value for 
> the next ten years, meaning no negative leap second.   But I'd 
> lower the ante :)

If we keep leap-seconds, I would bet even dollars (ie: a 50/50
probability) on at least one (and probably only one) negative
leap-second before the 2K38 time_t roll over.

This is an unscientific hunch, but based on scientific data: I see
far more co-trending in DUT1 and climate model result than I am
comfortable with.

-- 
Poul-Henning Kamp       | UNIX since Zilog Zeus 3.20
phk at FreeBSD.ORG         | TCP/IP since RFC 956
FreeBSD committer       | BSD since 4.3-tahoe    
Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by incompetence.



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