[LEAPSECS] LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 153, Issue 3

[Demetrios Matsakis]

You have anticipated many of the things that go in to the models!  They use their own language of course, like “glacial rebound”.

> On Jul 15, 2020, at 2:33 PM, Poul-Henning Kamp <phk at phk.freebsd.dk> wrote:
> 
> --------
> Demetrios Matsakis writes:
> 
>> rise, and the Earth gets rounder.   But the same people who do that math 
>> say today's warming, dramatic as it may be for our biosphere, is 
>> too little for this particular effect.   People have gotten that stuff 
>> wrong since George Darwin, though.
> 
> I think the basic redistribution of water will be a wash, pun
> intended, for instance the water in the Greenland icecape gets
> lowered some kilometers, but a lot of that water will end up in the
> central pacific, right on the Equator, due to the local gravitation.
> 
> If we get a negative leap, it will be because of "noise", both from
> whatever is going on under our feet, but possibly also from climate
> change transient phenomena, the crust under Greenland bouncing up
> under lighter load, ocean current modulations or, more unlikely
> reconfigurations.
> 
> But still eyeballing the LOD curve, I'd give it 50/50 before 2038.
> 
> -- 
> Poul-Henning Kamp       | UNIX since Zilog Zeus 3.20
> phk at FreeBSD.ORG         | TCP/IP since RFC 956
> FreeBSD committer       | BSD since 4.3-tahoe    
> Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by incompetence.