[StBernard] Here we go again

[Westley Annis]

By Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski


A broad area of low pressure that we have been watching and speculating on
since Monday is showing some signs of organization. Ship reports and buoys
in this area are showing pressure falls. At one point a ship was reporting a
pressure down to 1005 millibars just off the coast of Belize. thinking is
that a number of small low pressure areas are going to form in this area and
move westward into Belize. To the north a large mass of showers and
thunderstorms has formed. The quick change in the overall cloud movement and
organization to this low is due to the gradual decrease in the upper level
winds over this region. Strong north to northwest winds have been creating
too much shear over this area for any organization. Now that the shear is
decreasing we are seeing some signs of organization. We believe this feature
will move north or northwest during the next 24-48 hours which could put it
either in the Bay of Campeche or on the north or northeast coast of the
Yucatan. Once away from the Yucatan this feature might have some chance for
further development. Water temperatures just east of the Yucatan are very
warm and the waters in the Bay of Campeche are also very warm. So, the main
issue will be shear. Campeche faster than to the north of the Yucatan. So,
if the feature moves more to the west or northwest it might have a better
chance for organizing sooner than if it were to move due north. Computer
models are showing various ideas on this and just about every model now
shows some kind of low pressure area near the Yucatan by the end of this
weekend. Our current feeling is that if the shear can drop off enough we
could have a developing tropical system by the end of the weekend. 


Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic we are following tropical waves along 21
west, 52 west, 66 west and 77 west. All waves are moving to the west at
about 4-6 degrees longitude per day and are to the south of 15 north.
feature that is of interest is a large area of African Dust extending from
roughly 30 west to just east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical waves moving
within this dust have shown no thunderstorm development due to the drier air
aloft created by this swath of dust. This dust area will move into the
Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean tomorrow and over the weekend.