[StBernard] TD ONE Public Advisory 2

[Westley Annis]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 101444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
 
...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED BUT PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL
RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
 
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION
THIS AFTERNOON.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 
THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  GRAND CAYMAN
ISLAND HAS REPORTED 22.72 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF
4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...21.5 N...85.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER KNABB