[StBernard] TD ONE Discussion 2

[Westley Annis]

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006
 
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEW DATA TO COME IN SINCE THE SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 1115Z.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR SYSTEMS WITH
30-35 KT WINDS... IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT QUIKSCAT GREATLY OVERESTIMATED
THE WIND SPEEDS IN RAIN-CONTAMINATED AREAS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION.  OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AREAS... THE RETRIEVED WINDS WERE AS
STRONG AS 25-30 KT... SO HOLDING THE ESTIMATE FOR THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT
SEEMS REASONABLE.
 
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL SMALL CIRCULATIONS
ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 340/10
BUT REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED IN BETWEEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  LACKING ANY NEW TRACK GUIDANCE...
THE SCENARIOS PAINTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALL REMAIN POSSIBILITIES.
THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE
CANADIAN MODELS STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND
THE UKMET TURNS IT WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS.  MEANWHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF
MODELS SPLIT THE DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS... WITH THE LARGER ONE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS AND GFDL TRACKS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL TREAT THIS AS A SINGLE RECURVING SYSTEM THAT SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  AS STATED
PREVIOUSLY... THERE IS A GREATER THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST.
 
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS TO DOMINATE OVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM... AND INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE APPEARS UNLIKELY IN THAT
ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN PEAKS AT 50 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF... GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS
SOLUTIONS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 21.5N  85.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 22.9N  86.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 24.7N  86.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  86.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 27.8N  85.2W    50 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 31.0N  81.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 36.5N  74.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     15/1200Z 45.0N  63.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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