[StBernard] Survey: N.O. population 200, 000, up 10, 000 from Oct. estimate

Westley Annis westley at da-parish.com
Wed Nov 29 19:37:57 EST 2006


Survey: N.O. population 200,000, up 10,000 from Oct. estimate
November 29, 2006

The Associated Press

NEW ORLEANS - The final results of a summer population check indicate that
Jefferson Parish has almost as many residents as it did before Hurricane
Katrina, but only about 40 percent of New Orleans residents have returned.

The report estimates the city's population at 200,000 overnight residents,
up 10,000 from the figure released last month. Jefferson Parish's population
was estimated at nearly 440,000 people, a smaller change from the previous
estimate of 435,800.

About 24,500 people, 38 percent of the pre-flood population, has returned to
St. Bernard Parish, the worst flooded by Hurricane Katrina.

Taken together, the estimates put the three-parish metro area at 666,000
people, or two-thirds of the 1 million counted in the 2000 census.

The numbers matter because population is one part of deciding where federal
recovery should go.

"It's one of the things we'll use to determine where those critical pieces
of infrastructure go, like clinics, schools and other public
infrastructure," said Natalie Wyeth, spokeswoman for the Louisiana Recovery
Authority. "But I don't think it's the only determination. Again, these are
estimates. These are the best data we have so far."

The figures released this month represent the first set of final estimates
from what officials have called the most extensive effort to determine how
many people have returned permanently to 18 hurricane-ravaged parishes.

Mayor Ray Nagin, who once predicted as many as 300,000 people back by the
end of this year, has challenged the estimates as far too low. Spokeswoman
Ceeon Quiett said the city stands behinds its previous criticism of the
survey's high margin of error, which edged down from 11.5 percent to 9.8
percent. With a 9.8 percent margin of error, the population could be
anywhere from 180,400 to 219,600; the earlier estimate, with an 11.5 percent
margin, covered everything from 168,150 to 211,850.

Jefferson officials, meanwhile, said the estimate falls in line with their
predictions.

"The odometer continues to turn upward for Jefferson Parish in terms of
population, and I think it will continue to turn and we will reach our
pre-Katrina numbers, as I've said all along, by the end of this year or by
next year," Broussard said.

The LRA expects to release a similar report for St. Tammany Parish later
this week, followed in the coming months by results for parishes stretching
the entire coast.

Wyeth said the figures from St. Tammany stand to have a significant impact
as state agencies try to divine long-term population shifts and make
big-picture disaster recovery decisions about where to dedicate resources.

"That's going to give us a better sense of where people have landed that
left Orleans," she said Tuesday.

The estimates for Jefferson, Orleans and St. Bernard parishes remain fairly
close to preliminary results released in October, but investigators have
included surveys that trickled in late and a new set of people living in
group quarters.

The figures for those residents of non-household living arrangements gave
the biggest boost to New Orleans' total population by tacking on an
estimated 9,500 people who live in university dorms, assisted living centers
and transitional housing. Residents of group housing in the suburban
parishes, meanwhile, represented an even smaller sliver of their total
populations. The set increased Jefferson's population by 5,300 people and
St. Bernard's by 193 people.

The reports include demographic, housing, economic and health statistics
designed to instruct the LRA when it doles out recovery dollars.

New Orleans' racial composition, for instance, has shifted dramatically from
the U.S. Census Bureau's 2000 figures. The recent study estimates the city
is 47 percent black and 43 percent white. The 6-year-old census, on the
other hand, pegged the breakdown at about 67 percent black and 28 percent
white.

St. Bernard also had the highest rate of people in the three parishes who
described themselves as out of work. About 10 percent of St. Bernard
residents put themselves in that category, compared with 9 percent in New
Orleans and 3 percent in Jefferson.




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