[StBernard] Novak on La.

Westley Annis westley at da-parish.com
Wed Aug 15 19:28:47 EDT 2007


Louisiana Governor: Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) is the clear frontrunner in this
open-seat contest, but a real race could develop. The "jungle primary" (with
all candidates of all parties on the same ballot) will be on October 20. If
no candidate receives a majority, the top two candidates move on to a runoff
November 17. The scandal and disgrace of Jindal's mentor, Sen. David Vitter
(R), could complicate things.

Retiring Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) would have almost certainly gone down to
defeat if she had sought a second term, with her post-Hurricane Katrina
performance (low-lighted by her crying on national television) an
unredeemable stumble. Her missteps may prove to be just one more factor in
the state's realignment. As happened in Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina
and Alabama in 2000 through 2004, Louisiana -- a conservative state by most
measures -- may be finally aligning its party loyalties with ideology. That
spells trouble for Democratic hopes to hang on to the governor's mansion.

Jindal is the odds-on favorite, and he even has a chance of winning without
a runoff. Some early polls have placed him at more than 60 percent, while
others put him right around 50 percent. Jindal lost to Blanco in 2003 -- a
fairly positive race that served him well, building his statewide name
recognition. In 2004, Jindal easily won election as the 1st District's
congressman. Running on a platform of conservative reform, Jindal is part of
a small, but increasingly important, new breed of Louisiana Republican --
young, unafraid of conservative ideology and independent of the state's
corrupt political machinery. Politicians such as Jindal were the catalysts
for the GOP takeovers elsewhere in the Deep South.

On the flip side, Louisiana's leading new-breed conservative -- and formerly
Jindal's chief booster -- has been Sen. David Vitter, now known to have
frequented a prostitute. At the least, this deprives Jindal of a very
important backer. Democrats are trying to use Vitter's sins -- and his close
ties to Jindal -- against the front-runner, but so far this has not worked.

Jindal has been running statewide television spots longer than the other
candidates -- who have only recently jumped visibly onto the stage. This
gives Jindal an advantage, but it also suggests that some of his broad
support could be shallow and that once the voters are more focused on the
race, the lagging candidates could gain.

The chief challenger in the race is state senator Walter Boasso (D). Boasso
has climbed in his own polls recently from 6 percent in May to 13 percent in
late July. In that stretch, he laid down $1.3 million in television ads.
Boasso has been banking on Bush's unpopularity and portraying Jindal as a
stooge of Bush and Vitter.

The other Democrat on the radar screen is Public Service Commissioner Foster
Campbell (D). Campbell is the only statewide office holder of the group, but
he still lags.

Jefferson Parish businessman John Georges (R) could play GOP spoiler,
forcing a runoff. Georges is a millionaire, and he spent $2 million of his
own money earlier this month on a television buy. He still has at least $5
million more sitting around -- a war chest equal to Jindal's. His lower name
recognition and Jindal's popularity currently act as a real ceiling to his
support.

Louisiana, more than any state in the country, is shifting towards the GOP
amid nationwide Republican decline. This is in part due to the belated
realignment and in part due to Hurricane Katrina. The storm, its aftermath
and New Orleans' poor state of preparedness may be a Republican problem in
most of the country, but it's a Democratic problem in this state with a
Democratic governor, decades of Democratic machine politics and a Democratic
mayor in New Orleans. Leaning Republican Takeover.

Sincerely,
Robert D. Novak



More information about the StBernard mailing list