[StBernard] Jindal Louisiana Governor Election Landslide Premature

[Westley Annis]

Throughout Louisiana, there is a perception that the race for Governor is
over before it even started. Media reports and newspaper stories quote
supposed experts who suggest that U.S. Congressman Bobby Jindal (R-Kenner)
will be a landslide winner and avoid a run-off against any of his major
opponents. 

 

Yet, an analysis of recent Louisiana political history would suggest
otherwise. Whenever an incumbent Governor is not running for re-election,
there is a run-off. It happened in 1971, 1979, 1987, 1995 and 2003. In my
view, despite Jindal's big lead, there is at least a reasonable chance that
a run-off will occur this year as well. 

 

What is unique in this election is that the incumbent Governor is retiring
after only one term. After looking at polls, Governor Kathleen Blanco wisely
decided to save herself the embarrassment and abstain from the race. So,
once more, we have an opening in the Governor's mansion and that usually
means a large field. However, this year, the field is relatively small
because of the strength of Bobby Jindal. Every poll shows him as a big
leader, and some even place him 50 percentage points ahead.

 

Nevertheless, based on Louisiana political history and our current
demographics, it would be unwise to call this election for Jindal too early.
Despite outward migration caused by Katrina, the vast majority of voters in
Louisiana are Democrats. Prior to Katrina, Democrats won most of the
statewide elections in Louisiana. The question will be how much will the
hurricane hurt Democratic vote turnout? For that reason alone, New Orleans
Mayor Ray Nagin is considering a run for Governor. Nagin has no chance of
winning, but his candidacy may spur a higher turnout from African American
voters across the state and help Democratic Party legislative candidates as
well. 

 

Although Nagin is a wildcard, we do know that Jindal has three well financed
opponents. The recent polls were taken while State Senator Walter Boasso
(D-Arabi) was just beginning his television advertising and before John
Georges had even started. In the last several weeks, both Georges and Boasso
have made major media buys that will undoubtedly move their poll numbers up.
In addition, Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell (D-Shreveport) has
not been on television yet, but will start his advertising in September. It
is really a race for second between Boasso, Georges and Campbell, but all of
them will be targeting Jindal to move him below 50% in the polls to force a
November run-off.  

 

The debates have not begun and two months is a political eternity. Campaigns
have been won and lost in much shorter time periods. Right now, the
Louisiana Democratic Party is trying to batter Jindal with ads questioning
some of his religious writings from the 1990's. The commercials are focused
in North Louisiana, a part of the state with a large population of
Protestant voters. These articles, which were published in Catholic
periodicals, are supposedly "anti-Protestant," at least according to the
Louisiana Democratic Party. The Jindal campaign has responded vigorously and
contends the commercials are beneath contempt, yet the spots were not
pulled. The Democrats believe that these commercials can draw support away
from Jindal in a region of the state that did not support him in 2003. In
that election, Jindal lost because he was not able to attract traditionally
conservative voters in Central and North Louisiana to support his campaign.
Some charge that racism was involved and claim that the Blanco campaign
purposely seized upon this factor by darkening Jindal's picture in
advertisements. For whatever reason, Jindal lost, but at this point, many
Blanco voters surely feel "buyer's remorse" for supporting the ineffective
Blanco. 

 

Democrats would be wise to focus on political issues for the rest of the
campaign. Introducing religion into a political campaign is like playing
with fire, and it could burn the Democrats just as much, if not more than it
hurts Jindal. There are many issues to debate such as the budget, taxes, the
recovery, ethics, healthcare, education, and crime, just to name a few.
Hopefully, Jindal will agree to more than one debate and the voters will be
treated to a full discussion of the important issues in the race without
personal attacks. In this election, the stakes are higher than ever and the
voters deserve to see all of the candidates in action before they make their
decision on October 20th. 

 



Jeff Crouere is a native of New Orleans, LA and he is the host of a
Louisiana based program, "Ringside Politics," which airs at 8:30 p.m. Fri.
and 10:00 p.m. Sun. on WLAE-TV 32, a PBS station, and 5 till 9 a.m. weekdays
on WGSO 990 AM in New Orleans and the Northshore. For more information,
visit his web site at www.ringsidepolitics.com. E-mail him at
jeff at ringsidepolitics.com.