[StBernard] Jeff Masters' blog-Weather Underground: Invest 94L

[Westley Annis]

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan
Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure.
NHC designated this area "94L"
<http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200794_model.html>  this
morning. Satellite loops
<http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html>  show that the heavy
thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains
disorganized. A buoy
<http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056>  in the region
recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The
winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar
<http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg>  shows heavy rains have already
moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass
<http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas20.png>
showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind
shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical
depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and
western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming
northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across
the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the
disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low
enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses
into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will
make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much
time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Regardless,
Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from
this system.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=802&tstam
p=200709

Models:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200794_model.html


Jim