[StBernard] Gubernatorial Poll

[Westley Annis]

Jer,

I know how you feel about the race, but I still have hopes for Walter.
Still, my background in polling and running campaigns says these numbers are
not looking good for Walter.  In fact, the headline should read just the
opposite...these numbers tell me Jindal is most likely to win this in the
primary.

My conclusion are based on the fact that the 29% undecided/won't say really
aren't "all" undecided - trust me, they know how they will most likely vote.
Historically, when a candidate has over 45% of the sample with at least a
25% lead over the nearest opponent, he/she usually gets a third or more of
the undecided polled when undecided is more than 20%.   Hope I didn't lose
use with all those numbers and percentages.

To make it simple and add the numbers, figure on Jindal getting another 7 to
9 voters of the 29 per 100 Undecideds/Won't Says, then factor in that some
of them (a small percentage of the 20 per hundred) will not even show up on
election day.  So, Jindal would have at a minimum 53 of 97 (per 100 people
polled factoring 3 percent polled who won't go vote).  I guess this is
numeric explanation to say it's nuts to think that Jindal is not going to
get a decent chuck of the undecides/won't says.  Also historically, a good
percentage of undecided goes with who they "perceive" is going to win the
election - so they can tell everyone they know that they voted for the
winner...sounds lame, but it's a voting behavior fact - just ask any
credible pollster.

In fact, John Grimm of Multi-Quest Int'l in Metairie is the only pollster I
know who will often ask the question in his polling..."regardless of who you
like or who you will likely vote for, who do you think is most likely going
to win the election?"  Would you believe the answer (and percentage numbers)
to that question is usually the closest to the actual election day vote?
It's more accurate than outright asking "who are likely going to vote for." 

After having said all this, it puts Jindal getting 54-56% of the actual turn
out on election day.  But it gets even worse - my sources tell me Georges
has pulled slightly ahead of Walter in some other polls and I trust my
sources to be accurate.

I don't know what more Walter can do at this point.  I think he needs the
Democratic Party to finally  get behind him 100% as the party's candidate,
then spend the bucks and get visible.  Otherwise, this election is going to
end on October 20th.

John