[StBernard] Gubernatorial Poll

[Westley Annis]

Yes, John. I never dreamed Walter would move from a respectable,
conservative, considerate state senator to expose his reputation in such an
unethical, means-spirited, vindictive, despicable way! He's disappointed me
immensely, to say the least. I was a pro-Walter and would fight to the death
to defend his character Pre-Katrina. 

However, once he decided to enter the governor's race, his methodology,
cynical approach in the road to LA governorship is as apparent as fish in
the Bahaman waters. Clearly, Walter spun this honorable governorship into a
description which wreaks of "Fast Eddie of the 90's" (Edwards). I cringe at
the idea of his sitting in the Baton Rouge White House, knowing where he's
going with his liberal planning.

I can bet that much of his ambition (and yes, he has as much or more of any
of the candidates) was pre-planned during Katrina. I know if I were in
Walter's mind and shoes, I also probably would plan political strategy (even
in a boat for 8 hours) around this event. Walter knew his chances vs. a
great candidate. However, as a Republican candidate, the strategy would be
weak and thought a more thorough plan was needed to force one into a runoff.
He jumped out of the "political boat of conservatism" (and yes, do NOT
believe that he's "still a conservative" though he's running in the liberal
position/party. Flip-flopping? Hardly, because he expects to get the
majority of the minority vote, the 'po vote, the liberal vote and even try
to be shrewd enough to think he'll get the conservative vote with this
statement. <chuckle>. If he gets conservative votes in St. Bernard Parish,
it'll be because people with rose-colored spectacles are being used to
believe this "savior" is authentic and will not only bring them to the
mountain, he will go over it to the promised land. Sheeesh. Folks no matter
who takes us to the mountain as governor, the reality is that only by hard
work, an outcry to get us what's due us, and a determination to succeed in
recovery is what will get us fixed after being broken for much too long.

I still say 52% for Jindal and 25% or less for Walter. 

Only the Lord will get us over the hump. No human has the knowledge,
strength or power to do so as if he was savior. None. Our state is beyond
broken on all fronts, from education to highways, from recovery to health
issues, and from corruption to corrosiveness. 

If it won't take 20 years to get to that point, it will never be so. Perhaps
it wasn't meant to be if God is not a part of the program.

--jer--

-----------------------------------------------------
Jer,

I know how you feel about the race, but I still have hopes for Walter.
Still, my background in polling and running campaigns says these numbers are
not looking good for Walter.  In fact, the headline should read just the
opposite...these numbers tell me Jindal is most likely to win this in the
primary.

My conclusion are based on the fact that the 29% undecided/won't say really
aren't "all" undecided - trust me, they know how they will most likely vote.
Historically, when a candidate has over 45% of the sample with at least a
25% lead over the nearest opponent, he/she usually gets a third or more of
the undecided polled when undecided is more than 20%.   Hope I didn't lose
use with all those numbers and percentages.

To make it simple and add the numbers, figure on Jindal getting another 7 to
9 voters of the 29 per 100 Undecideds/Won't Says, then factor in that some
of them (a small percentage of the 20 per hundred) will not even show up on
election day.  So, Jindal would have at a minimum 53 of 97 (per 100 people
polled factoring 3 percent polled who won't go vote).  I guess this is
numeric explanation to say it's nuts to think that Jindal is not going to
get a decent chuck of the undecides/won't says.  Also historically, a good
percentage of undecided goes with who they "perceive" is going to win the
election - so they can tell everyone they know that they voted for the
winner...sounds lame, but it's a voting behavior fact - just ask any
credible pollster.

In fact, John Grimm of Multi-Quest Int'l in Metairie is the only pollster I
know who will often ask the question in his polling..."regardless of who you
like or who you will likely vote for, who do you think is most likely going
to win the election?"  Would you believe the answer (and percentage numbers)
to that question is usually the closest to the actual election day vote?
It's more accurate than outright asking "who are likely going to vote for." 

After having said all this, it puts Jindal getting 54-56% of the actual turn
out on election day.  But it gets even worse - my sources tell me Georges
has pulled slightly ahead of Walter in some other polls and I trust my
sources to be accurate.

I don't know what more Walter can do at this point.  I think he needs the
Democratic Party to finally  get behind him 100% as the party's candidate,
then spend the bucks and get visible.  Otherwise, this election is going to
end on October 20th.

John