[StBernard] TO JOHN SCURICH

[Westley Annis]

ddk, 

I'll have to take a look at that.  I agree with you, I think those are
statistics worth looking at.  I'm going to raise this question with John
Grimm at Multi-Quest the next time I see him.

In regards to local election run-offs, you have to expect a lower turn out.
To what extent it's hard to say right now.  The reason for this is due to
the fact that there won't be a governor's race.

Sure, the races for sheriff and parish president are hotly contested and
generate a lot of interest, but that doesn't mean you'll have the same turn
out.  Here's why:  let's say you're living in Hammond.  You had some
concern/interest in the sheriff's race, but it was your interest in voting
in the governor's race that forced you to drive all the way into the parish
to vote on Saturday.  With that race over, you might not feel it's so urgent
to drive all the way back in a few weeks, especially if deer season, etc.
just opened - the reason being, you know there's a good chance you might not
ever return to St. Bernard.  Living where you are for the present you
couldn't vote for Governor - so you HAD to drive to the parish.

Another reason is some people have a presumption as to who's going to win
and feel their vote won't make much difference, so why drive all the way
back to the parish.  This is particular true in a race like the parish
president's where one candidate came so close to winning it outright in the
first, plus has a commanding lead over the run-off challenger.  I'm already
hearing people say there's no way Junior can win.  While that remains to be
seen, the presumption is an accurate one simply based on history.

I belive the latter is what Junior and Stephens are counting on - or hoping
at least.

Thanks,

John

-----Original Message-----
To John Scurich-care to share your political crystal ball with regards to
other runoffs of local interest? Enjoy hearing how the political analysts
read the pulse of the public. 
 
Also, with the voter turnout in St. Bernard somewhere around 11,000, can you
tell what percent of the votes are coming from people actually living in the
parish versus those who have relocated but eligible to participate in St.
Bernard elections.  And can you tell us which areas (Arabi, Chalmette,
Meraux, Violet, Poydras, etc.)  had a  higher participation rate in voting
this tme than the parish average using the number of votes divided by the
number still on the voter registration rolls?  I like statistics and this
may tell us something about the influence or not of those relocated as well
as tell if some areas had higher turnout in this major election.  ddk