[StBernard] TO JOHN SCURICH

[Westley Annis]

"I'm already hearing people say there's no way Junior can win.  While that
remains to be
seen, the presumption is an accurate one simply based on history. --John
Scurich"

Jer: I believe that he cannot win and here's why. Most of JR's base included
the elderly and those who tend to benefit from his liberalist philosophy,
those who do not accept change lightly, those who wanted JR to do something
(beyond stop up the MRGO with a "plug". Things have worsened and many felt
disappointed with the recovery, the progress, and his being complacent
(whether because of his age and weight) to do an acceptable job at mobility
which is required quite often during the massive recovery period. It hasn't
happened and disillusionment crept into the equation. 

Craig offers integrity (more) than JR. He also offers hope. JR's placed all
his "chips" in a bet for MRGO. Although MRGO is a critical portion of the
equation, it is not the only part. Everyone here knows all the pieces of the
puzzle that concludes the whole puzzle picture. Much is needed under JR's
direction and JR either can't or won't be able to do so. 

I am not a best friend of Craig, but it is he that offers the best choice of
the two. There was no one capable nor qualifying from the parish that has
more knowledge needed for what needs to be done to accomplish the
near-impossible seeming tasks that lay ahead.

When I saw 50% of the vote, I assumed he had exactly 50% + 1 which have won
it outright, so I'm assuming Craig had 49.90 which would not win the
primary. 

I knew when I handled results from the Clerk of Court's office (Live
results), I knew and so did others in real time. This was not done since
pre-K and missed by many who had to depend on final results later in the
evening. But still, the Secretary of State just listed 50%. 

Again, I will predict a Taffaro win. JR to try and compensate for any
short-comings in the political tryst will no doubt use "dirty-slang,
politics and falsehoods" on news ads that resemble a "jail-break" in typeset
and appearance. Whomever uses such layouts in print should be "boiled in his
own puddin' and left out to dry" for lack of professionism and proper
knowledge. Circus act appearance at best. 

However, whatever the outcome, we do wish da parish success, fair and proper
governing. 

--jer--

-----------------------------------------------------
ddk, 

I'll have to take a look at that.  I agree with you, I think those are
statistics worth looking at.  I'm going to raise this question with John
Grimm at Multi-Quest the next time I see him.

In regards to local election run-offs, you have to expect a lower turn out.
To what extent it's hard to say right now.  The reason for this is due to
the fact that there won't be a governor's race.

Sure, the races for sheriff and parish president are hotly contested and
generate a lot of interest, but that doesn't mean you'll have the same turn
out.  Here's why:  let's say you're living in Hammond.  You had some
concern/interest in the sheriff's race, but it was your interest in voting
in the governor's race that forced you to drive all the way into the parish
to vote on Saturday.  With that race over, you might not feel it's so urgent
to drive all the way back in a few weeks, especially if deer season, etc.
just opened - the reason being, you know there's a good chance you might not
ever return to St. Bernard.  Living where you are for the present you
couldn't vote for Governor - so you HAD to drive to the parish.

Another reason is some people have a presumption as to who's going to win
and feel their vote won't make much difference, so why drive all the way
back to the parish.  This is particular true in a race like the parish
president's where one candidate came so close to winning it outright in the
first, plus has a commanding lead over the run-off challenger.  I'm already
hearing people say there's no way Junior can win.  While that remains to be
seen, the presumption is an accurate one simply based on history.

I belive the latter is what Junior and Stephens are counting on - or hoping
at least.

Thanks,

John