[StBernard] Zogby Shocker: McCain Leads Obama In Latest Poll

Westley Annis Westley at da-parish.com
Sun Nov 2 11:28:56 EST 2008

Zogby is telling McCain supporters not to get to excited because one day of
beating Obama is not a trend. C'mon John, you should know better!

John Zogby's reasoning is his polling is averaged over a three day period or
longer. Sure, such averaging over several days is good several weeks out
from election day, but not within 4 days of the elections. That's because
voters really start thinking about the fact their vote will count
permanently and mouthing off in a poll doesn't count for anything.

Also, John Zogby should be ashamed of himself. He's obviously forgotten his
Polling 101 course where averaging polls over several days yields a reliable
result ONLY if the figures in the poll are consistent from day to day
without any big shifts in the numbers. That is NOT the case here. Zogby
even admitted that McCain actually took the lead on Friday...ah, correct me
if I'm way off here, but I'd say McCain being down by 8 points on Thursday,
then leading the next is an "extreme" shift in the numbers. Any pollster
with common sense would conclude the "averaging" system of numbers over
several days gets thrown out the window when that happens, particulary when
it's only 4 days from election day.

If I'm wrong, go ask John Grimm, Ed Renwick or Silas Lee if what I'm saying
here is incorrect. They won't.

Yes folks, the winds of change are a comin', but I'm not sure it's the kind
of change Obama likes. Thing are going to be interesting on November 4th.

John Scurich

-----Original Message-----
Zogby Shocker: McCain Leads Obama In Latest Poll

Saturday, November 1, 2008 1:16 PM

By: Newsmax staff Article Font Size

Dick Morris tells Newsmax that Friday night's polling for Zogby of 1,000
likely voters shows a huge shift for John McCain.

Zogby's poll, conducted on Friday night only, has McCain at 48 percent and
Obama, at 47 percent.

Zogby's overall poll has Obama with a lead, but that's based on a three-day
average that includes Wednesday and Thursday polling data.

"There is a seismic shift for McCain," Morris told Newsmax. "It could turn
into an earthquake this weekend."

"I think a large of the credit goes to GOPTrust.com for its courageous use
of the Rev. Wright ad and the many tens of thousands who have donated almost
$9 million before election day," Morris said.

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