[StBernard] Louisiana: 3rd District faces a battle

[Westley Annis]

Louisiana: 3rd District faces a battle

By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report

June 17, 2009 -The Bayou State's 3rd District (Morgan City, etc.) is likely
to be the site of a hotly contested congressional election next year,
whether or not three-term US Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) seeks re-election
or decides to run against US Sen. David Vitter (R). If Melancon, the only
Democrat on Louisiana's US House delegation, stays put and seeks
re-election, he is likely to be one of the GOP's high profile targets. 

As the incumbent, Melancon would start out as the favorite. Factors that
would help him include a moderate voting record -- 52% liberal, 48%
conservative in 2006, says the National Journal. He's also furthered his
"Southern Democrat" image by serving as co-chairman of the conservative Blue
Dog Coalition in the House. Moreover, he got lots of points for his work on
helping his constituency recover from the disastrous 2005 hurricane season
(Katrina and Rita).

But Melancon may have used up some of this capital in this right-trending
district when he voted for President Obama's stimulus package. "Instead of a
Blue Dog, they call him a lap dog," says Louisiana pollster Bernie
Pinsonnat. The congressman has also run into some hostile audiences at town
hall meetings in his districts. 

Although Melancon had no opposition in 2008, he initially won by a slim 50%
in 2004 and was re-elected by a healthy but not overwhelming 55% in 2006.
But the district's Republican leanings are strong. Bush carried it with 58%
in 2004 and McCain with 61% in 2008. Pollster Pinsonnat says that the
district "is not so much Democratic or Republican as it is very
pro-business," noting the large oil and ship-building industries, and
ancillary businesses, in the district are non-union. 

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has aired radio spots
in the district attacking Melancon for voting for Obama's stimulus package
and continues to send media releases to the district criticizing Melancon
for other votes that might give him trouble, such as opposing an amendment
to block federal funds from being used to transfer prisoners from the
Guantanamo prison in Cuba to the United States.

The NRCC has already met with state Rep. Nickie Monica, who is considered a
likely challenger to Melancon. While he hasn't announced, one source says,
"Every time you see him he tells you he's running." Monica, a former
employee of the Marathon Oil Refinery, served as president of St. John the
Baptist Parish before his election to the legislature. 

"Plenty of people are talking about running against Melancon since Obama
came in," says Pinsonnat. Other names are getting mentioned, although none
have announced. If the seat is open, any of them are more likely to run.
They include Bill Nungesser, president of Plaquemines Parish and son of a
former state GOP chairman; St. John Parish president Bill Hubbard; and
Lafourche Parish president Charlotte Randolph. 

Melancon has made no public pronouncement, yea or nay, on his 2010 plans,
but there is a lot of talk about Melancon running against Vitter. "He's
looking at it pretty hard," says a Democratic insider. Melancon's growing
problems with anti-Obama constituents in his district could encourage him to
move to the statewide race. Another factor that might encourage a Melancon
Senate race is that he could face redistricting problems after the 2010
census. New Orleans' post-Katrina population loss could push the 3rd
District's boundaries further west, to Melancon's detriment.

If Melancon does decide to challenge Vitter, who was damaged by publicity
surrounding his alleged patronage of a prostitute, the congressional vacancy
is likely to create "a healthy primary [in the district] on both sides,"
says the insider.