[StBernard] Dr. Gray's updated forecast for hurricane season

[Westley Annis]

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2006

 


Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 

Climatology (in parentheses)

Issue Date

6 December 2005

Issue Date

4 April 2006


Named Storms (NS) (9.6)

17

17


Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)

85

85


Hurricanes (H) (5.9)

9

9


Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)

45

45


Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)

5

5


Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0)

13

13


Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)

195

195

 

 

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON
EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS: 

 

1)      Entire U.S. coastline - 81% (average for last century is 52%)

 

2)      U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 64% (average for last
century is 31%)

 

3)      Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47%
(average for last century is 30%)

 

4)      Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

 

JY

 

 

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