[StBernard] New election districts for lawmakers not likely

[Westley Annis]

New election districts for lawmakers not likely
July 10, 2006
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By Mike Hasten
mhasten at gannett.com

BATON ROUGE -- Despite Louisiana's population shifts that have decimated
some districts and exploded others, next year's legislative elections will
go on as scheduled without redistricting.

The possibility of redrawing election districts before the Oct. 20, 2007,
legislative primaries has been discussed among lawmakers, particularly after
the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in a Texas case that legislatures do not have
to wait for a new census to reapportion districts.

 
The catch, said Glenn Koepp, secretary of the Senate and reapportionment
specialist, is "we would have to have a justifiable database. What
population data are we going to use? We don't have any."

Without justified new numbers, "we'd have to use the numbers from 2000,"
before Katrina and Rita changed the landscape, said Rep. Charles Lancaster,
R-Metairie, chairman of the House committee that handles reapportionment.
"Or we could take another census, which would be very expensive."

Koepp said one state tried to do its own census but gave up because of the
high price. The Supreme Court approved Hawaii using registered voters as a
basis for drawing up election boundaries, but that was because so many
soldiers were stationed there.

It's not likely to happen again, he said.

Rep. Emile "Peppi" Bruneau, R-New Orleans, who has handled every
reapportionment bill since 1970, said the fact that the old numbers would
have to be used for reapportionment "to me is the reason not to do it"
before the 2010 census.

Bruneau's District 94, primarily the Lakeview area of New Orleans, was
devastated by Hurricane Katrina.

"I don't want to get into a legislative reapportionment fight if we don't
have to," Lancaster said.

Even with the most optimistic forecasts for New Orleans' recovery, the city
is likely to lose two or three of its 11 House seats and at least one Senate
seat when reapportionment is done after the 2010 census, Lancaster said.

A RAND Corp. study for Mayor Ray Nagin's Bring New Orleans Back Commission
says that by September 2008, the metropolitan area's population could grow
to about 272,000 -- 56 percent of the 485,000 pre-Katrina count. The mayor
says the projection is low.

Rep. Billy Montgomery, D-Haughton, said numerous lawmakers expected
reapportionment to be part of the 2006 legislative session because most of
southeastern Louisiana had been evacuated and there was little sign of many
people returning. But as lawmakers discussed the idea, they decided it
"would be throwing mud in their faces or being insensitive to wipe out their
districts," considering the plight of the legislators in those areas.

"I know some of those districts don't have anyone in them to vote," he said.
"But I guess people can vote absentee or drive to New Orleans or Chalmette."

Although a slight variance is allowed by the U.S. Department of Justice, the
ideal election district for the House of Representatives contains 42,000
residents.

As an example of the disparity in the next election, only "close to 1,000"
residents have returned to District 101 in eastern New Orleans, said Rep.
Cedric Richmond. The others are "still dispersed" from his district, one of
the areas of the city that was hardest hit when Hurricane Katrina sent 10 to
15 feet of water through and over levees.

Richmond said even though few people live in the district, "if you look at
the City Council race in that area, there were a number of well-financed
challengers. People's interest in service and politics has risen."

Drawing new election lines every 10 years based on census counts works, he
said, "so temporary spikes and dips aren't calculated."

"We'll just have to go through another four-year cycle with questionable
districts," said Sen. Tom Schedler, R-Mandeville, whose burgeoning district
north of Lake Pontchartrain is now home to thousands of former New Orleans
residents.

Schedler said he has talked to lawmakers in the affected areas and "he or
she doesn't have enough to fill up a phone booth." However, trying to adjust
those districts now "would have been a most politically charged atmosphere."

"If ever there was a case for the Justice Department to sign off" on
reapportionment without a full census, "this is it," he said. "The
demographic shift is well documented."

There's another way, too, he said.

"With all the billions of dollars they're spending, the government could pay
for a census," Schedler said. "With all the funding issues, it seems like
they would want to know. "> On the flip side, maybe we don't want to know."

"The Legislature should wait and do it the right way in 2010," Lancaster
said, instead of "using the phony baloney numbers from 2000."

Because of term limits, Schedler, Lancaster, Bruneau and Montgomery are
among the nearly 50 percent of lawmakers who won't be running for
re-election next year. That leaves reapportionment to nonterm-limited
lawmakers who manage to get re-elected, any new senators and representatives
who beat incumbents, and successors of the term-limited 51 House members and
17 senators.