[StBernard] St. Bernard, New Orleans nation's fastest growing communities

[Westley Annis]

St. Bernard, New Orleans nation's fastest growing communities
by Paul Rioux, The Times-Picayune 
Wednesday March 19, 2008, 9:17 PM
In an aftershock from Hurricane Katrina's demographic shakeup, the nation's
fastest-growing community is not some sun-drenched or leafy suburb marked by
a red-hot housing market and new subdivisions that sprout up seemingly
overnight. 

Instead, the honor goes to storm-ravaged St. Bernard Parish, where blocks of
homes remain gutted in some areas and the real estate market is so depressed
that two-thirds of home sales are to the Road Home program. 


And the competition isn't even close. 

St. Bernard's population exploded 42.9 percent last year, easily the biggest
increase for any U.S. parish or county, according to data released today by
the U.S. Census Bureau. 

Hurricane-scarred Orleans Parish was second with a 13.8 percent population
increase, edging out Pinal County in Arizona, a Phoenix suburb that grew by
11.5 percent. 

"We always knew St. Bernard was the No.¤1 place to live. Now the whole
country knows it," quipped Catherine Serpas, who lives in rural eastern St.
Bernard. 

Of course, this all comes a year after St. Bernard and New Orleans topped a
national list of communities with the largest population losses in the wake
of Katrina's devastation. 

Even with the sizable gains of the past year, St. Bernard's population is
less than half its pre-Katrina benchmark of about 65,000, while New Orleans
has regained about two-thirds of its pre-storm population of 450,000. 

A bit misleading 

"It's certainly encouraging that people are returning," said Greg Rigamer, a
demographer with GCR & Associates who has closely tracked the area's
population growth since Katrina. "But to call these the fastest-growing
parishes in the country is like someone who owned Bear Stearns stock when it
went from $100 to $1 overnight and then got excited when it rose to $2 the
next day because their investment just doubled." 

Even so, Rigamer said, the news reinforces signs of revitalization in the
two parishes, both of which had declining populations before Katrina. From
2000 to 2005, New Orleans lost an average of 6,200 residents per year
compared to 375 per year for St. Bernard, according to census data. 

"We might never get to back to our pre-Katrina population, but we can try to
capitalize on the recovery dollars flowing in to create long-term
sustainable economic growth," he said. 

St. Bernard's population swelled from 13,875 in July 2006 to 19,826 last
July, according to Census Bureau estimates. 

The 42.9 percent increase is one of the largest one-year population gains on
record, said Caroline Leung, a demographer at Louisiana Tech University. 

But in terms of raw numbers, St. Bernard's nearly 6,000-person gain pales in
comparison with a population increase of 101,583 in Maricopa County in
Arizona, which had the biggest numerical gain in the country, according to
the Census Bureau estimates. 

Estimates contested 

The census data indicate the population in New Orleans increased 28,926 from
210,198 in July 2006 to 239,124 in July 2007. But city officials said the
2007 figure is about 60,000 too low, prompting them to begin preparing an
appeal with the Census Bureau. 

"This low estimate has the potential to negatively impact the image of our
city and to discourage our citizens from returning," Mayor Ray Nagin said in
a news release. "It also could cost us as much as $56 million in federal
assistance." 

Nagin's administration calculated that the city will lose $9.3 million in
federal financing during the next three years for every 10,000 residents it
thinks are undercounted by the Census Bureau. That could translate to a
$55.8 million loss if New Orleans' population is 300,000, as city officials
contend it is. 

Similarly, St. Bernard officials said they think the parish's population is
substantially higher than the new Census Bureau estimate. They pointed out
that a state figure used in revenue-sharing calculations pegged St.
Bernard's population at 25,000 in July, about 5,000 more than the Census
Bureau figure for the same date. 

St. Bernard Parish President Craig Taffaro's administration estimated the
parish's current population at 32,340, just less than half the pre-Katrina
figure. 

Setting aside the disagreement about the population numbers, Taffaro, who
recently announced a slogan contest to promote the parish to tourists and
St. Bernard expatriates, said he likes the ring of "Fastest-Growing
Community in the Country." 

"When you lose basically your entire population overnight, it obviously
skews things and makes it easier to post big growth numbers," he said. "But
if we're still No. 1 next year, that will really tell you something about
our recovery." 

Growing pains 

Many St. Bernard residents reacted with bemusement upon learning that in
just two and a half years, the parish had transformed itself from a
post-Katrina wasteland to the nation's fastest-growing community. 

"If that's true, why can't we get a Wal-Mart, a Kmart or a Target?" said
Jeanne Lagarde, who lives in St. Bernard community. "All of these people are
coming back, but there's no place to shop." 

One department store, Stage, did announce Wednesday that it plans to return
to its pre-storm location in Chalmette this summer. 

Although St. Bernard's growth spurt is largely a statistical anomaly, some
parish residents share a common complaint with people in other rapidly
growing communities: traffic. 

"Right after Katrina, you had the whole road to yourself, but now the
traffic is getting pretty bad," Serpas said. "You almost wish sometimes that
the parish didn't come back as fast as it has." 

"That's right," said Paul Lagarde, Jeanne Lagarde's husband. "Maybe we
shouldn't encourage too many more people to come back because we're just the
right size." 

Paul Rioux can be reached at prioux at timespicayune.com or (504) 826-3321.